With one brazen strike, Israel may have lit the fuse on a dangerously combustible region. The assassination of senior Hamas leader Ismael Haniyeh on Iranian soil late July, last month, sent shockwaves across the Middle East, bringing the simmering conflict between the two bitter foes closer to a boil. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei swiftly vowed revenge for the killing, leaving no doubt that retaliation was a question of when, not if.
Yet weeks later, that response remains conspicuously absent, fueling feverish speculation about Tehran's motives and the contours of its looming counterstrike. For Robert Greenway, who served on the U.S. National Security Council, Iran's hesitation reflects a calculated effort to prepare the battlefield.
"Iran wasn't expecting the hit," Greenway said in recent interviews, noting that it followed in quick succession the killing of Hezbollah mastermind Fuad Shukr. "It caught them off guard. They wanted to set in motion a series of activities and decide internally what course of action they would pursue."
Those preparations culminated last week in a meeting of regional allies convened by Iran to coordinate the coming storm. Make no mistake: when that storm breaks, it will be ferocious. For decades, Iran has cultivated a network of proxies across the Middle East, each a force multiplier in Tehran's long shadow war against Israel.
The crown jewel in this "Axis of Resistance" is Hezbollah, the battle-hardened Lebanese militia with over 150,000 rockets aimed at Israeli cities and infrastructure. While Hezbollah enjoys a degree of autonomy under leader Hassan Nasrallah, the group's entire existence depends on Iranian largesse and strategic direction. An Iranian order to attack would be tantamount to a religious command.
In Gaza, Hamas wields an increasingly sophisticated rocket arsenal built with Iranian know-how and parts. In Yemen, the Houthis function as an extension of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, a dagger pointed at the throat of global energy supplies. Across Syria and Iraq, a constellation of Shia militias stands ready to unleash chaos on Iran's behalf.
Greenway envisions Tehran activating this multinational proxy army in a punishing campaign of strikes from all directions. "Iran's goal is to overwhelm Israeli and American air defenses with multiple threats at multiple altitudes," he warned. "Ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, armed drones - all converging on Israel in a relentless barrage."
But the most chilling aspect of Greenway's assessment is his conviction that Iran no longer fears U.S. intervention on Israel's behalf. Tehran increasingly views the Biden administration as feckless and war-weary, more likely to restrain Israel than rush to its defense.
It's a perception forged through bitter experience, from Washington's seeming acquiescence to dozens of Iranian attacks on U.S. personnel to its eagerness to resurrect the ill-fated nuclear deal at almost any price. For the clerical regime in Tehran, that perceived weakness amounts to a green light to escalate.
All of which sets the stage for a confrontation as explosive as it is unpredictable, with the potential to rapidly engulf the entire region. Iran may be betting that it can bloody Israel's nose without inviting full-scale retaliation. Israel may be gambling that its unrivaled military and technological edge will deter Tehran from going too far.
Both are playing with fire. A miscalculation by either side could transform a calculated escalation into an uncontrollable inferno, drawing in regional powers, disrupting global energy flows, and realigning strategic partnerships in ways that reverberate for a generation.
As the temperature rises, the line between shadow war and all-out war grows dangerously thin. Will cooler heads ultimately prevail? Can determined diplomacy avert catastrophe at this late hour? The next few weeks may render those questions academic.
For now, the long-suffering people of the Middle East can only watch, wait, and pray - all too aware that the most consequential decisions about their fate will be made not by them, but in the palaces of Tehran, Jerusalem, and Washington. The potential for tragedy on an epic scale looms large. So does the urgent imperative for leaders on all sides to step back from the brink, before the unthinkable becomes the inevitable.
Engage "strategy" focused conversations with humour and insight.
コメント