In response to the growing threat of asteroid impacts, China’s space authorities have established a dedicated planetary defense team and outlined plans to track, warn about, and potentially deflect hazardous asteroids. This initiative was launched in early 2025, shortly after the risk posed by asteroid 2024 YR4, which has a 2.3% chance of impacting Earth in 2032, was identified. Led by Li Mingtao, a professor at the National Space Science Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the team is tasked with addressing this significant cosmic threat.
China’s entry into planetary defense has the potential to significantly influence global cooperation in space. Historically, asteroid tracking and defense have been the domain of international organizations, such as NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), which share asteroid tracking data with astronomers worldwide. In this field, data and resources are frequently shared across borders. For instance, NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and IAWN consistently share asteroid tracking information with global astronomers. China’s increasing involvement in this area could enhance these international efforts but may also shift the dynamics of collaboration.
China’s involvement could lead to new collaborations with countries such as Russia, Japan, and members of the European Space Agency, further cementing the role of planetary defense as a global concern. Additionally, it could spur new space science developments, particularly in the fields of asteroid detection, early warning systems, and deflection technologies. While scientific cooperation may grow, the implications for security and military cooperation must be considered as well.
The Chinese planetary defense team’s primary objective is to enhance the country’s capability to detect, track, and mitigate the impact threat posed by near-Earth objects (NEOs). Experts emphasize that planetary defense is a system-of-systems challenge requiring coordination among various units, from observatories and space agencies to the military, disaster management agencies, and academic institutions.
China’s specific focus is on developing a robust early warning system, improving asteroid detection technologies, and advancing methods for deflecting or diverting potentially hazardous asteroids. To this end, China is investing heavily in new observation infrastructure, including the development of advanced ground-based telescopes and satellite-based monitoring systems. Additionally, Chinese scientists have proposed launching space-based telescopes to address the limitations of Earth-based observation, thereby improving the accuracy and scope of asteroid tracking.
China’s planetary defense strategy includes both short-term and long-term goals. In the short term, the country is focused on enhancing its ability to detect and track hazardous asteroids. China is investing in the development of observational infrastructure, such as new telescopes and satellites, to detect NEOs earlier and more reliably. This would allow for earlier warnings and potentially provide more time for mitigation strategies to be implemented.
Looking ahead, China is exploring asteroid deflection technologies, including nuclear and kinetic impactor methods, which are seen as critical in the event of a serious threat. Chinese researchers are also working on developing more sophisticated early warning systems to detect asteroids on a collision course with Earth and coordinate international responses. More ambitiously, China has proposed the idea of deploying space-based telescopes to address the limitations of Earth-based observation. These telescopes would improve global asteroid tracking and allow for more timely detection of potentially hazardous objects.
While China’s planetary defense initiative is focused primarily on natural threats, the technologies and expertise developed could have significant dual-use applications for military and security purposes. Technologies for tracking asteroids could be adapted for monitoring other space-based threats, such as satellites or weapons in space. Additionally, asteroid deflection technologies might be repurposed for offensive or defensive military applications, such as intercepting missiles or neutralizing enemy satellites.
The development of these technologies is likely to increase military interest in planetary defense systems. China's progress in space-based technologies could prompt other nations, including those in NATO and the Five Eyes alliance, to assess the potential security implications of these advancements.
Russia has long been concerned about asteroid threats, partly due to events such as the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor explosion, which highlighted the vulnerability of Earth to cosmic impacts. The Russian space agency, Roscosmos, has explored planetary defense strategies in collaboration with other nations and has expressed interest in advancing its own asteroid detection and deflection capabilities. However, Russia’s response to China’s growing capabilities in planetary defense may include both opportunities for collaboration and concerns about the geopolitical implications of China’s technological advancements. Russia may seek to align itself with China in this arena, particularly if shared data and resources help mitigate the threat posed by asteroids. Alternatively, Russia might seek to strengthen its own capabilities in response to China’s efforts, leading to a potential space race for asteroid defense technologies.
NATO’s primary concern regarding planetary defense lies in the potential for disruptions to critical infrastructure and regional security in the event of an asteroid impact. The alliance may view China’s planetary defense initiative with cautious optimism, as it represents a significant contribution to global security. NATO is likely to consider opportunities for collaboration with China in areas such as asteroid tracking and mitigation efforts. However, the alliance’s emphasis on maintaining strategic balance in space means that China’s growing role in planetary defense could also trigger an internal reassessment of NATO’s space security priorities.
As an intelligence-sharing group, the Five Eyes alliance—comprising the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand—will likely focus on assessing the security implications of China’s planetary defense initiative. While the alliance has historically been focused on intelligence sharing in matters of national security, it may now expand its scope to include the assessment of space-based threats. The Five Eyes alliance is also likely to engage in discussions about the development of joint asteroid defense capabilities, as planetary defense becomes an increasingly important aspect of global security. This may involve sharing satellite data, joint research, and coordinated efforts to track and mitigate the risks posed by NEOs.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is a key example of the type of near-Earth object that China’s planetary defense team is working to address. With a potential impact probability of 2.3% in 2032, the threat it poses is significant, as its destructive power is estimated to be on the order of several megatons of TNT. An impact of this magnitude could cause widespread devastation, including massive loss of life, environmental destruction, and long-term disruptions to global agriculture and infrastructure.
Planetary defense efforts such as those being developed by China are critical in reducing the likelihood of such an impact. Early detection, accurate tracking, and effective mitigation technologies could provide the global community with the necessary tools to prevent or minimize the damage caused by asteroid impacts. China's focus on enhancing its asteroid tracking and deflection capabilities will contribute to global efforts to safeguard Earth from cosmic threats.
China’s planetary defense initiative highlights the evolving intersection of science, security, and international politics in space. As China develops its capabilities in asteroid detection and deflection, the global community will need to consider both the scientific opportunities for collaboration and the strategic implications for international security. In the face of growing space-based threats, including the risk posed by asteroid 2024 YR4, planetary defense has become an increasingly important area of global cooperation—and competition. As space science continues to advance, the role of international collaboration will be essential in addressing the potential dangers posed by near-Earth objects and ensuring the security of Earth for future generations.
